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每周全球金融观察 | 第 142 篇：这是一个美好的世界; 这是一个充满机会的世界

来源：岭南论坛时间：2023-06-12

随着人们所担心的美国技术性违约和潜在的灾难性市场破坏的消失（美国国会在 X-date 之前解决了债务上限的懦夫博弈），被大肆宣扬的劳动力市场崩溃在 5 月份再次没有实现（5 月就业报告好于预期，创造了 33.9 万个就业岗位，而预期为 19.5 万。而 4 月份的就业岗位从 25.3万修正为 29.4 万，最初估计为 18.5 万），再加上对美联储暂停加息的预期（市场对 6 月 14 日不加息的概率为 70%，而且可能不再加息），市场理所当然地处于欢欣鼓舞的状态（或非理性的繁荣）。

标普 500 指数在 2022 年 1 月 3 日创下了 4796 点的历史新高，在 10 月 12 日创下了 2022 年的最低点 3577 点。周四（6 月 8 日）S&P500 指数收于 4,293 点（YTD +11.84%），从 10 月 12 日的低点回升了 20.04%，正式结束了 248 天的熊市（1948 年以来最长的一次）。

事实上，除了 MSCI 中国指数之外，2023 年的全球股票都有不错的表现。

纳斯达克 100 指数（+32.8%），纳斯达克综合指数（+26.68%），日经 225 指数（+23.65%），标准普尔 500 指数（+11.96%），MSCI 欧洲（+8.35%），MSCI 中国（-3.4%）：

在 2022 年的股债双杀之后，市场参与者在进入 2023 年时保持了根深蒂固的看跌心态，有无尽的恐惧：失控的通货膨胀、美联储和欧洲央行无情的加息、美国债务违约风险、即将到来的经济衰退（总是在三个月之后）、银行危机（总有更多的银行违约）等等。

然而，所有的世界末日都没有实现。通货膨胀（尽管与政策制定者的目标相比仍然很高），但仍在消退，加息周期的结束已经到来或接近，美国债务违约得以避免（他们总是这样），即将到来的经济衰退被一系列 3 个月和 3 个月的时间推后（是的，欧元区处于技术性衰退，2022 年第四季度 GDP 增长为-0.1%，2023 年第一季度又为-0.1%，但预计 2023 年将增长 0.9%），劳动力市场拒绝让步，银行危机得到遏制。

股市、利率和货币波动率在 2023 年呈下降趋势(见下图)。也许我们可以借用 FDR 的不朽名言 "我们唯一需要恐惧的是恐惧本身。"

S&P500 波动率（恐慌指数），利率波动率，货币（外汇）波动率：

2023 年 YTD 的业绩与往年相比，请参考下表:

所有数据截至 6 月 9 日， *1 截至 6 月 8 日

我们将何去何从?

现金继续涌入美国货币市场基金:

美国货币市场基金资产管理规模从 4.89 万亿美元（3 月 8 日）飙升至 6 月 7 日报告周的 5.46万亿美元，增加了 5700 亿美元。另一方面，银行系统的存款已经从 3 月 1 日的 17.66 万亿美元下降到 5 月 24 日报告周的 17.1 万亿美元，减少了 5600 亿美元。值得注意的是，不断增加的货币市场基金代表了风险资产的巨大基金备用金。

美国货币市场基金资产（@6/7）和银行存款（@5/24）:

指数化的谬误:

五只股票（苹果、微软、谷歌、亚马逊和 Nvidia）占标普 500 指数市值的 24%，还有 495 只股票。同样的五只股票占纳斯达克 100 指数（NDX）的 54%，占纳斯达克综合指数（有 3,549 只股票）的 43%。我们可以将今年的涨势视为由少数几只股票推动的，而不予理会。然而，在指数化、ETF 和被动投资的世界里，不投资这五只股票将是灾难性的，包括主动管理人。事实上，领先的股票越是反弹，被动和主动投资组合就越需要重新平衡并增加其权重。永远不要低估指数化的力量......

英伟达,苹果,微软,谷歌,亚马逊 vs 纳斯达克 100 指数,纳斯达克综合指数：今年以来的回报:

投资要有远见，不要用后视镜投资:

当投资界关注通货膨胀、加息、经济衰退和美国债务违约的启示时，一个巨大的机会悄悄地从我们身边溜走。5 月 24 日，英伟达(Nvidia)宣布，截至 7 月的未来三个月的销售额将达到 110亿美元（比华尔街的估计高出 50%以上），这是由大型科技公司的数据中心支出的复苏和对该公司 H100 芯片的需求所推动的，该芯片是世界上第一个为 "生成性人工智能 "设计的芯片。5月 25 日，Nvidia 股价反弹 24.37%，获得 184 美元市值（单日市值涨幅第三高，仅略微落后于苹果和亚马逊创下的 1910 亿单日记录）。今年以来英伟达股票上涨了 165%。英伟达是第 8 家市值突破 1 万亿美元的公司。

今年以来 (至 6 月 9 日)，半导体板块上涨 39.21%，SOXX ETF 上涨 39.91%。纳斯达克 100 指数上涨 32.8%，纳斯达克指数上涨 26.68%。

我们目前正在经历一场人工智能（包括 ChatGPT）的盛宴。然而，如果没有英伟达的生成芯片，人工智能将一无是处。可以说，在未来几年（也许是几十年），世界将对高端半导体有永不满足的需求，以支持各种人工智能应用。这种需求将不会受到通货膨胀、货币政策的影响，并可能跨越经济和政治周期。

苹果公司的 Vision Pro:

苹果公司本周推出了其 VR 设备：Vision Pro。它的价格为 3499 美元，似乎超出了大众的消费极限。苹果公司为 Vision Pro 的高价辩护，将其与电视、音响系统、电脑、相机和多个显示器的综合成本进行比较，据称它可以取代这些设备。我还没有被说服。然而，如果 Vision Pro是一个失败者，并且像我们在 2007 年拒绝的 499 美元的 iPhone 一样取得了疯狂的成功，那么最后一章将在几年后写完。

2007 年 6 月 29 日，苹果推出了第一款 iPhone。消费者的接受度并不完全是旺盛的，第一年只卖出了 1200 万部（与去年的 2 亿部相比）。早些时候推出的 iPod（2001 年）是疲软的，用了七年时间才达到每年超过 5000 万台的高峰。苹果的 iWatch 在推出时被认为是一个垃圾，但去年的销量超过了 5000 万块，在某些年份，它的销量超过了整个瑞士手表行业。

我是一个狂热的 i 生态系统的人：iPod、iPhone、iMac、iPad、iWatch......我的错误，我的投资组合中没有直接拥有苹果股票....。

第一课：第一代的失败可以导致第三代和第四代的成功。

20 年前，我们大多数人没有智能手机也能生活。今天，随着移动支付（微信支付、阿里支付、贝宝等）、打车（Uber、滴滴......）和实例消息（微信、企业微信、WhatsApp）的出现，没有智能手机（无论是 iPhone，还是三星手机，还是华为手机），我们中很少有人能正常运作。事实上，智能手持设备早在几年前就已经达到了临界点，没有它就等于生活在黑暗时代。

第二课：当你在河下建隧道（或建桥）时，不要计算通过渡轮过河的汽车数量。对了，渡轮服务多年前就停止了...

我们需要在投资中记住第 2 个教训。英伟达 H100 "生成性人工智能 "芯片的价格为每个 4 万美元，而建立一个 "生成性人工智能系统 "的服务器硬件成本远远超过 2.5 亿美元。

25 年前，流行的说法是“我们需要一个互联网战略”。毫无疑问，互联网已经渗透到我们生活和商业的方方面面。如今，每个企业都需要一个“人工智能战略”。谁不在谈论人工智能和ChatGPT？

在我的几次 MBA 讲座中，我提出了我最喜欢的问题："你认为谁在华尔街赚的钱最多？获得一亿美元奖金的交易员？年薪十亿的对冲基金巨头？拿到几十亿奖金的 PE 巨头们？如果你知道答案或好奇答案，请给我发短信（我指的是微信或 WhatsApp，不是老式手机短信）。

作者：蔡清福

Alvin C. Chua

2023 年 6 月 11日, 星期日

东亚和中国股票市场的表现与全球同行的比较：

截至2023年6月9日的数据

Article #142: It is a beautiful world; it is a world full of opportunities

With the much-feared US technical default and the potentially apocalyptic market disruption off the table (the US Congress worked out the debt-ceiling game of chicken before the X-date), the much-touted labor market capitulation again did not materialize for another month in May (May payroll gain of 339,000 vs 195,000 forecast, while the April payroll gain was revised from 253,000 to 294,000, vs an initial estimate of 185,000), together with the anticipation of Fed on a pause mode (the market is pricing-in a 70% probability of no rate hike on June 14, and possibly no more rate hike), the market is rightfully in a state of jubilation (or irrational exuberance).

The S&P500 hit an all-time high of 4,796 on Jan 3, 2022, and the 2022 low was 3,577 on Oct 12. On Thursday (June 8) the S&P500 closed at 4,293 (+11.84% YTD) which represents a 20.04% recovery from the Oct 12 low, officially ended the 248-day bear market (the longest since 1948).

In fact, YTD 2023 has been notable for out-performance in global equities, except for MSCI China.

Nasdaq 100 Index (+32.8%), Nasdaq Composite Index (+26.68%), Nikkei 225 Index (+23.65%), S&P500 (+11.96%), MSCI Europe (+8.35%), MSCI China (-3.4%):

After the 2022 debacle, market participants maintained a permanently bearish mindset going into 2023, with endless list of fears: the out-of-control inflation, the relentless rate hikes by the Fed and the ECB, the US debt default risk, the impending recession (always three months away), the banking crisis (always more banks to default), etc.

However, none of the apocalypses have materialized. Inflation (although still high vs policy makers’ target) but nevertheless receding, the end of rate hike cycle has arrived or approaching, US debt default averted (they always had been), the impending recession has been pushed back by series of 3-months and 3-months (yes, Eurozone is in technical recession, with -0.1% GDP 2growth in Q4 2022 and another -0.1% in Q1 2023, but is expected to grow 0.9% for 2023), and the labor market refusing to give-in, and the banking crisis contained.

Equity, interest rate, and currency volatilities have been on a declining path in 2023 (please see the following graph). Perhaps we could borrow the immortalized quote from FDR “the only thing we have to fear is fear itself.”

S&P500 Volatility (Fear Index), Interest Rate volatility, Currency (FX) Volatility:

Please refer to the following table for YTD 2023 performance vs prior years:

640_wx_fmt=png.png

All data as of June 9， *1 as of June 8

Where do we go from here?

Cash continues to pour into US Money Market Funds:

US money market fund AUM had sky-rocketed to $5.46 trillion by June 7 reporting week, up from $4.89 trillion (on March 8), an increase of $570 billion. On the other hand, the banking system deposits have declined from $17.66 trillion on March 1 to $17.1 trillion by May 24 reporting week, a decline of $560 billion. It is important to note that the increasing MMF AUM represents an enormous dry powder for risk assets.

US Money Market Fund assets (@6/7) and bank deposits (@5/24):

The fallacies of indexing:

Five stocks (Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon and Nvidia) account for 24% of S&P 500 market capitalization, and there are 495 other stocks. The same five stocks account for 54% of Nasdaq 100 index (NDX) and 43% of Nasdaq Composite Index (with 3,549 companies). We can dismiss the rally this year as being driven by a handful of stocks. However, in the world of indexing, ETFs, and passive investing, not investing in these five stocks would be disastrous, including the activemanagers. In fact, the more these stocks rally, the more passive as well as the active portfolios need to rebalance and increase their weighting. NEVER underestimate the power of indexing …

Nvidia, Amazon, Apple, Google, Microsoft vs Nasdaq 100 vs Nasdaq composite: YTD returns:

Investing with foresight, not with rear view mirror:

As the investing world was focusing on inflation, rate hikes, recession and US debt default apocalypse, a tremendous opportunity quietly passed us by. On May 24, Nvidia announced that sales for the next three months ending in July would be US$ 11 billion (more than 50% higher than Wall Street estimates) driven by a revival in data center spending by Big Techs and demand for the company’s H100 processors, the world’s first chip designed for “Generative AI”. On May 25, Nvidia stock rallied 24.37%, and gained US$184 market capitalization (3rd highest single day market cap gains, just slightly behind the 191 billion single day record set by Apple and Amazon). YTD Nvidia stock gained 165%. Nvidia is the 8th company to cross US$ 1 trillion market cap.

YTD June 9, 2023, the semiconductor sector gained 39.21%, the SOXX ETF gained 39.91%. The Nasdaq 100 gained 32.8%, while the Nasdaq gained 26.68%.

We are presently going through an AI (including ChatGPT) exuberance. However, AI will be nothing without Nvidia’s generative AI chips. It is fair to say, over the upcoming years (perhaps decades), the world will have insatiable demand for high end semiconductors to power all kinds of AI applications. This demand will not be affected by inflation, monetary policy and is likely to cross economic and political cycles.

Apple’s Vision Pro:

Apple launched its Vision Pro headset this week. At US$3,499, it seems extraordinary and beyond the spending limit of the masses. Apple justifies the Vision Pro’s hefty price by comparing it to the combined cost of a TV, sound system, computer, camera, and multiple displays, which it supposedly replaces. I am yet to be convinced. However, it will be years later before the final chapter is written, if the Vision Po is a flop and as wildly successful as the $499 iPhone we rejected in 2007.

On June 29, 2007, Apple launched the first iPhone. The consumer reception was not exactly exuberant, with only 12 million units sold in the first year (vs 200 million units last year). The earlier launch of iPod (in 2001) was anemic, and it took seven years for it to reach its peak of over 50m units a year. The Apple iWatch was considered a dud when it was launched, but it sold more than 50m last year, and in some years has outsold the entire Swiss watch industry.

I am an avid i-ecosystem person: iPod, iPhone, iMac, iPad, iWatch … My mistake, I didn’t own Apple stocks directly in my portfolio ….

Lesson #1: first generation flops can lead to 3rd of 4th generation hits.

20 years ago, most of us could live without a smart phone. Today, with mobile payments (Wechat Pay, AliPay, PayPal, etc), cab-hailing (Uber, Didi, …), and instance messaging (Wechat, corporate WeChat, WhatsApp), few of us can function normally without a smart phone (whether an iPhone, or Samsung phone, or Huawei phone). In fact, the handheld device has reached the tipping point well over a decade ago, without it one would be like living in the dark ages.

Lesson #2: don’t count the number of cars crossing the river via ferry when you build a tunnelunder the river (or a bridge). Btw, the ferry service stopped many years ago …

We need to remember lesson #2 in investing. The Nvidia H100 “generative AI” chip cost US$ 40,000 each, and it cost well over US$250 million of server hardware to build a “generative AI systems”.

25 years ago, the buzz word was “we need an internet strategy”. Sure enough, the internet has permeated to every aspect of our lives, and well as business. Today, every business will need an “AI strategy”. Who is not talking about AI and ChatGPT lately?

I popped my favorite question during several of my MBA lectures: “who do you think made the most money on Wall Street? The gun-slinging BSD trader who received US$100 million bonus? The hedge fund titan who earned a billion a year? The private equity titan who took home billions? Text me (I meant WeChat or WhatsApp, NOT the old mobile phone SMS please) if you know the answer or curious to know the answer.

By Alvin Chua

Sunday June 11, 2023

East Asia and China equity markets performance vs the global peers:

Data as of 2023 June 9